Publicación: Aunque fallen, ¿sirven? : encuestas y desafíos para la industria argentina
Fecha
2024-08-28
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Universidad Católica de La Plata. Facultad de Derecho y Ciencias Políticas
Resumen
Resumen: Las encuestas representan hoy un elemento central dentro de las campañas políticas en Argentina. Gobernantes, decisores, medios de comunicación e incluso la misma comunidad politizada se interesan por conocer sus resultados y establecer pronósticos. Durante los procesos electorales recientes, las encuestas, como mecanismo de medición de la opinión pública, han sido colocadas bajo la lupa, debido a numerosas fallas recurrentes para vaticinar resultados en una contienda. Ahora bien, ¿sirven las encuestas para predecir resultados? ¿Es correcto afirmar que fallan? ¿Por qué fallan? Y si fallan, ¿aún son de utilidad? Este artículo explora las causas de estas deficiencias y subraya la importancia de las encuestas en la vida democrática. Finalmente, se plantean cinco desafíos que enfrenta la industria de cara a mejorar su performance.
Abstract: Polls today represent a central element within political campaigns in Argentina. Governors, decision-makers, the media and even the politicized community itself are interested in knowing their results and establishing forecasts. During recent electoral processes, polls as a mechanism for measuring public opinion have been placed under the magnifying glass, due to numerous recurring failures to predict results in a contest. Now, do surveys serve to predict results? Is it correct to say that they fail? Why do they fail? And if they fail, are they still useful? This article explores the causes of these deficiencies and highlights the importance of polls in democratic life. Finally, five challenges that the industry faces in order to improve its performance are presented.
Abstract: Polls today represent a central element within political campaigns in Argentina. Governors, decision-makers, the media and even the politicized community itself are interested in knowing their results and establishing forecasts. During recent electoral processes, polls as a mechanism for measuring public opinion have been placed under the magnifying glass, due to numerous recurring failures to predict results in a contest. Now, do surveys serve to predict results? Is it correct to say that they fail? Why do they fail? And if they fail, are they still useful? This article explores the causes of these deficiencies and highlights the importance of polls in democratic life. Finally, five challenges that the industry faces in order to improve its performance are presented.
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ENCUESTAS, ESTRATEGIA, DEMOCRACIA, ELECCIONES, ARGENTINA, SURVEYS, STRATEGY, DEMOCRACY, ELECTIONS
